Disruption Intelligence · War Games Simulation

See the cascade coming.
Train your teams to stop it.

Shepherd gives aviation operations teams two things: real-time intelligence to see disruption risk before it compounds — and simulation-based training to build the decision muscle memory to act on it decisively when it does.

Pillar One · Intelligence
Live Disruption Intelligence

Connection risk scoring, network fragility mapping, and real-time cascade flags — so your teams see what's coming before passengers do.

Pillar Two · Simulation
War Games & Simulation

Scored disruption exercises, live facilitator control, and automated after-action review — building the decision muscle memory that tools alone can't create.

Real-time
Connection risk scoring
5
Scored decision dimensions
48h
Automated post-session review
Replayable scenario library
The Problem

Two gaps.
One platform.

Aviation has invested heavily in tooling. But two problems remain unsolved. First: operations teams often can't see the full downstream picture of a developing disruption until it's already cascading. Second: even when the data is there, teams without practised decision instincts make slower, costlier calls under pressure.

Shepherd is built to close both gaps — simultaneously.

Intelligence Gap
Connection clusters, fragility scores, and cascade flags are scattered across systems — or not surfaced at all until the window to act has closed.
+
Decision Gap
When crew constraints, connection clusters, and slot windows collide simultaneously, teams without practised muscle memory make slower, higher-cost decisions.
The Cascade Cost
Every hour of unmanaged cascade adds passenger welfare liability, compensation exposure, and knock-on network disruption that compounds through the day.
Pillar One
Live Disruption Intelligence

See the network.
Before it breaks.

Shepherd's intelligence layer surfaces connection risk, network fragility, and cascade exposure in real time — giving operations teams the situational picture they need to make proactive decisions, not reactive ones.

01
Connection Risk Scoring

Every inbound flight is scored against its connection cluster in real time. Misconnect probability, passenger volume at risk, and rebooking options are surfaced before the aircraft lands — not after.

Live misconnect probability per flight
Connection cluster passenger count
Downstream rebooking capacity flagged
02
Network Fragility Mapping

Shepherd scores the structural fragility of your network at any given moment — identifying which routes, crew pools, and aircraft are operating closest to their limits before a trigger event hits.

Crew FTL proximity indicators
Thin-route single-point-of-failure flags
Slot window pressure scoring
03
Cascade Flag & Downstream Impact

When a delay or cancellation occurs, Shepherd immediately maps its downstream cascade — flagging affected connections, welfare obligations, and crew constraint knock-ons across the full day's operation.

Automated cascade chain mapping
EU261 / FTL exposure flagged instantly
Priority action sequencing surfaced
04
Real-Time Disruption Dashboard

A single operational picture across your network — live flight status, fragility scores, active cascade flags, and passenger impact metrics consolidated in one place for every team that needs visibility.

Cross-network live status view
Role-based visibility layers
Configurable alert thresholds
SHEPHERD / DISRUPTION INTELLIGENCE / LIVE — 14:32 UTC Network fragility: ELEVATED · 3 active cascade flags
BA2201
Tracking +47 min · 82 connections at risk · Long-haul cut-off in 38 min
Cascade Active
BA4412
Crew approaching FTL limit · Standby pool: 2 available · Exposure window: 90 min
FTL Watch
BA0871
CTOT window closing · Slot held for 22 min · Ground handler SLA at risk
Slot Pressure
BA1103
On time · 12 connections protected · No fragility indicators
Nominal
Pillar Two
War Games & Simulation

Train the decisions
that matter most.

Seeing the cascade is only half the problem. Teams need the practised decision instincts to act on it — fast, correctly, under pressure. Shepherd's simulation layer builds that muscle memory through scored, repeatable exercises with automated after-action review.

01
Scenario Engine

Branching disruption scenarios across crew, connection, runway, weather, and systems events. Authored from real industry event patterns. New scenarios built by your own teams in minutes.

02
Live Facilitator Control

Real-time session runner for facilitators. Inject events, pause for debrief, and monitor every participant's decision path simultaneously. War room and individual views available.

03
Automated Scoring

System-derived scoring across five dimensions — cascade awareness, priority accuracy, regulatory compliance, resource efficiency, and passenger impact. No self-reporting. No facilitator subjectivity.

04
After Action Review

Every session ends with a detailed automated debrief. Decision patterns identified. Benchmark gaps surfaced. Recommended focus areas for the next session generated automatically.

05
Team Benchmarking

Individual and cohort performance tracked across sessions over time. Identify decision pattern gaps by role, shift, and experience level. Progress measurable and reportable.

06
Executive War Games

Strategic-level exercises for directors and senior leadership. Network-wide scenario planning. Stress-test recovery frameworks and crisis governance before the next major event.

Live Simulation

Pressure that performs like the real thing.

Every scenario is timed, cascading, and scored. Teams feel the weight of real constraints. Facilitators control the tempo.

SHEPHERD / SESSION-WG-003 / CREW-LIMITS / TRIAGE
⚡ Live Inject — T+14 Minutes

Delay cascade has pushed 4 crews into their final 2 hours of duty simultaneously. Standby pool has 2 crews available. Must select 2 of 4 FTL-affected flights to operate. Flights: BA721 (82 connections, 4h20), BA722 (12 connections, 1h45), BA723 (45 connections, crew at destination), BA724 (last service to thin route, 180 pax).

A Allocate to BA721 (highest connection risk) and BA724 (no alternative service). Cancel BA722 and BA723. Optimal
B Allocate to longest-haul flights BA721 and BA723 by flight time.
C Allocate to easiest-to-operate flights to maximise operational success probability.
After Action Review

Decisions scored.
Patterns revealed.

Every simulation session ends with an automated after-action review. Scoring is system-derived — not self-reported. Scenario options are pre-tagged with cascade and priority metadata, producing consistent, deterministic assessment across every participant and session.

Insight Example — Session WG-003

Cascade awareness score (6.2/10) was 18% below benchmark. Pattern: consistently under-protected connection clusters when the primary disruption was crew-origin. Recommended: crew-cascade scenario block in next session.

Session WG-003 · Operations Team Alpha 7.4 / 10
Cascade Awareness
6.2
Priority Accuracy
8.0
Regulatory Compliance
9.0
Resource Efficiency
7.4
Passenger Impact
6.8
Credentials

Built from inside
the problem.

Operational Origin

Shepherd was founded by a former British Airways Customer Experience Expert who owned the Heathrow disruption management product — and was in the room when it actually happened during the May 2017 global IT outage. This is not an academic product.

Industry Validation

The founding team's predecessor disruption intelligence project was selected for the IATA accelerate@iata programme — a competitive cohort of the highest-potential aviation startups globally.

Category Signal

The aviation operations intelligence category is being validated in real time. Navi AI's recent $6.7M raise confirmed investor confidence in AI-powered ops tools. Shepherd owns the decision-making layer.

Who It's For

Every team that touches
disruption.

Shepherd is built for the full range of airline teams involved in disruption management — from those making live network decisions to the leaders stress-testing strategy at the top.

Operations
Network & Operations Teams

The teams making live decisions under pressure when disruptions cascade. Shepherd gives them the situational intelligence to see ahead and the trained instincts to act decisively.

Real-time cascade and connection risk visibility
Crew constraint and FTL decision scenarios
CTOT compliance and slot window optimisation
Regulatory exposure scoring (EU261, FTL)
Ground & Airport
Ground Operations & Handling

Ground handlers and airport operations teams managing the physical execution of recovery plans — often under conditions set by decisions made elsewhere.

Welfare obligation activation scenarios
Rebooking triage and queue management
Cross-carrier coordination exercises
Customer Experience
Customer-Facing Teams

Contact centre, airport, and frontline passenger-facing teams who carry the direct passenger impact burden during disruption events — and whose responses affect compensation liability.

High-value passenger priority scenarios
Compensation entitlement decision exercises
Communication timing and channel training
Leadership
Directors & Senior Leadership

COOs, network directors, and senior leaders who need to stress-test recovery strategies and crisis governance frameworks — and demonstrate organisational resilience to boards and regulators.

Network-wide disruption war games
Cross-departmental coordination exercises
Strategic resilience benchmarking
Get Started

Close both gaps.
Intelligence and training.

We work with a focused set of airline partners. Request a briefing to discuss your operations context and how Shepherd maps to it.

No sales process. Direct conversation with the founding team.